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Onsdag 28. august holder forskeren Nicola Scafetta foredrag om sol og planeter innvirkning på jordens klima. Les hans innlegg i klimadebatten her.


 

Holder foredrag i Oslo

Onsdag 28. august klokken 19.00 inviterer Klimarealistene til åpent møte med tittel “Sol og planeter kontrollerer jordens klima – IPCCs klimamodeller feiler». Nicola Scafetta, forsker ved Active Cavity Radiometer Monitor (ACRIM) og ved Duke University er foredragsholder.

Møtet finner sted i auditorium 14 i Domus Bibliotheca (Vestbygningen), Universitetet i Oslo, Karl Johans gate.

Geoforskning.no invited me to write a brief comment on my research following the article by Jan-Erik Solheim and Ole Humlum, En enkel empirisk harmonisk klimamodell, that has been inspired by my research.

Essentially I noted that the climate system appears well described by a set of specific harmonics and simple harmonic models based on them are able to hindcast the climatic variations since 1850 better than any general circulation models currently used by the IPCC to promote the anthropogenic global warming theory. These oscillations appear to be synchronous to specific astronomical oscillations.

This research began with Scafetta (2010) where I investigated whether the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations could have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets were found to share a common set of frequency peaks.

Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond between the astronomical and temperature records. Among them, large climate oscillations at periods of about 20 and 60 years were found in the climate system and they were discovered to be well synchronized to the correspondent oscillations found in the speed of the Sun relative to the barycenter of the solar system. This particular astronomical function is mostly determined by the movement of Jupiter and Saturn.

Other decadal temperature cycles at about 10-12 years have been typically associated to the Schwabe solar cycle. A quasi 9.1-year cycle is also quite evident in the temperature records and appears well synchronized to a set of soli-lunar tidal cycles.

The existence of  a quasi 60 year cycle in the global surface temperature available since 1850 is quite evident in the data: see the black curve in the figure 1 below. 1850-1880, 1910-1940, 1970-2000 were warming periods and 1880-1910 and 1940-1970 were cooling periods and since 2000 no warming has been observed.

530x409 fig1

Typical power spectrum evaluation of global surface temperature records are shown below (figure 2) where the red boxes indicate the astronomical frequencies.

530x409 fig2

Figure 3 shows the global temperature records filtered in various way by detrending the upward warming and smoothing the signals. The black curves in panels [C] and [D] represents two astronomical astronomical ascillations at 60 and 20 year periodicity and a good phase matching is observed.  

530x409 fig3

In addition to the decadal and multidecadal oscillation, other secular and millennial oscillations characterized the climate system and can be associated to solar-astronomical oscillations. This is shown in Figure 4 below that shows a solar-astronomical model (red curve) against paleoclimatic temperature records during the last 2000 years.

530x409 fig4

The quasi millennial and the quasi 115 year common oscillations between the astronomical record and the temperature records are quite evident.

Natural oscillations are able to reconstruct about 50% of the 20th century warming and are not reproduced by the climate models adopted by the IPCC. So, only the leftover 50% could be reasonable associated to anthropogenic GHG effects or to other effects such as urban heat island and land use change effects that could have biased the temperature records. This implies that the true climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling needs to be at least reduced by half from the IPCC 3 oC median to about 1.5 oC.    

As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a quasi 50% attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hindcasting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. The semi-empirical model projects  a 2000-2100 warming ranging between about 0.3 oC and 1.5-2.0 oC , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of about 1 oC to 4 oC.

The figure below compares the IPCC CMIP5 projections against the solar-astronomical harmonic model that I propose. Evidently, my model better reconstruct the temperature patterns at multiple scales.

530x409 fig5

A detailed review summary of this research is in Scafetta (2013).


 

References

Scafetta N., 2010. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72, 951-970.
http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/ATP3162.pdf

Scafetta N., 2013. Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs. Energy & Environment 24(3-4), 455–496.
http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/Scafetta_EE_2013.pdf

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